Publicly we are told about an almost agreed draft on ceasefire monitoring. It is a control mechanism involving the US and Europeans immediately after a ceasefire is announced. It sounds encouraging, but not everything is so cloudless. Behind these formulations stand specific negotiators. The Geneva meetings were attended by Rustem Umerov, Vladimir Medinsky and Davyd Arakhamia. These are the people conducting the dialogue on the most sensitive issue of the war. Yet society knows neither the details nor the red lines.
Arakhamia and Umerov: negotiators without a public mandate? Davyd Arakhamia has long been Bankova's political communicator in complex processes. But what proposals exactly are being discussed? Why, after an hour-and-a-half meeting with a Kremlin representative, is there not even a basic explanation of the topics? What happens behind closed doors when the press turns off the cameras? Rustem Umerov carries a corruption trail well known in defence circles. This is not an accusation but a fact of the atmosphere of distrust. If a person is negotiating a ceasefire, society must have maximum trust in him. Is that trust there now?
A document between NATO and Russia: a strategy of silence. Information about a possible new document between NATO and Russia, being discussed without Ukraine's direct participation, is particularly alarming. If the framework of a security architecture is being prepared in parallel, the military monitoring draft becomes merely a technical annex to broader agreements. The problem is the lack of transparency and of open political accountability. When key decisions are prepared by a narrow circle of people who already face reputational questions, this creates a risk for the state.
As a reminder, negotiations with Russia, which has violated all agreements with Ukraine for 400 years, are worth nothing. They understand only the language of force. The only real security guarantee is a combat-ready army backed by a strong economy. And the question here is at what price and on what terms they intend to sign a peace treaty and, most importantly, who will be held responsible for it?